Background Information
China has been engaged in a territorial dispute with a number of other nations over their claims in the South China Sea. This dispute has been escalating in recent years, with Beijing now asserting its claims over the entirety of the sea, including the Paracel Islands, Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal. In particular, China aims to establish a 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) within the South China Sea, which would enable it to control access to the region and its resources. This has caused tension with neighboring countries in the region, as they also have claims over parts of the sea.
Data and Experts Perspectives
Several experts have weighed in on the dispute between China and the other countries with claims over the South China Sea. International law expert Jin-Hyun Paik of the University of Southern California has stated that the “Law of the Sea stands in China’s way of erecting a 200-nautical-mile EEZ in the South China Sea,” as the Law does not recognize the principle of “historic rights” that Beijing has cited to justify its position. Meanwhile, political scientist Taylor Fravel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology contends that “China is pushing its claim more aggressively, making its assertions in new forums and with a broader legal base.”
In addition to the opinions of legal and political experts, it is also important to consider the facts and figures surrounding the dispute. According to the FisheriesWorkforce.org, Chinese fishermen have 225,248 vessels registered in the South China Sea, compared to Vietnam’s 37,224 vessels and the Philippines’ 10,457. In addition, China has stationed an estimated 5,434 fishing boats in the region, compared to Vietnam’s 2,271 and the Philippines’ 264.
Insight and Analysis
Given the experts’ perspectives and the data surrounding the dispute, it is clear that China is looking to establish a 200-nautical mile EEZ within the South China Sea as a way of asserting its claims over the region. This would allow China to control access to the region’s resources and exercise dominance over the other countries with claims to the sea. This is particularly evident in the number of fishing vessels that Chinese fishermen have registered in the South China Sea.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that international law does not recognize the claim of “historic rights” that China has been citing as justification for its position. This could prevent China from establishing an EEZ in the region, as international law does not allow for such a move by a single country.
Furthermore, it is important to consider the implications of China claiming the second chain in the South China Sea. If China succeeds in establishing its 200-nautical mile EEZ in the region, this could result in a more militarized South China Sea and further tensions between China and its neighbors. We have already seen the beginnings of such tensions in recent years, as China has deployed military vessels in the region and tightened regulations on fishing vessels.
International Reactions
The international community, especially the countries in the region, have already begun to take a stance on China’s actions in the South China Sea. In particular, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has expressed serious concern over the actions of China in the region, especially its construction of artificial islands and militarization of the seas. In response, China has sought to assuage ASEAN’s fears, arguing that its activities in the South China Sea are “peaceful” and that it has “no intention to militarize or threaten anyone.”
However, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to pacify the other countries in the region. The United States, for example, has condemned China’s attempts to define and enforce its own rules in the South China Sea. The US has also increased its military presence in the region and has provided military assistance to other countries with claims over the South China Sea.
Economic Power
Economic power is also a key factor in the dispute over the South China Sea. In particular, the lucrative fishing industry and potential for oil and gas reserves in the region have been cited as potential incentives for China to gain control over the region. According to a report by the Asian Development Bank, the South China Sea has an estimated 1.65 billion barrels of oil and 9.71 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which could be a major source of revenue for China.
In addition, the fisheries industry in the South China Sea is a major source of livelihood for those living in the region. According to the China Center for Human Rights and the Environment, approximately 10 million people are employed in the fisheries industry in the South China Sea. The potential loss of livelihoods in the region could place even more pressure on China to address the dispute in a swift and equitable manner.
Domestic Pressure
Domestic pressure is also a factor that China must take into account when claiming territory in the South China Sea. Chinese citizens have become increasingly vocal in their criticism of the government’s aggressive approach to the dispute. In particular, many Chinese people have voiced their opposition to the militarization of the South China Sea, as well as its potential to disrupt the regional peace.
Moreover, the domestic population has become more aware of the implications of China’s actions on their own livelihoods. For instance, the possible loss of access to the region’s fisheries resources could have a detrimental impact on the millions of people employed in the industry. In this regard, it is highly likely that the Chinese government will take into account public opinion when formulating its policy in the South China Sea.
Negotiation Strategies
In view of the various factors at play in the dispute over the South China Sea, it is clear that the Chinese government is facing a fraught and complex task ahead. As such, China must employ the most effective strategies in order to reach a peaceful resolution to the dispute.
Chief among these strategies should be a commitment to multilateral negotiations. This could allow all the countries with claims to the South China Sea to engage in constructive dialogue and discuss potential solutions that uphold the principles of international law. Such talks could also foster dialogue and understanding between the various stakeholders, which could pave the way towards a lasting peace in the region.
At the same time, China should also consider making concessions that could enable a more equitable and mutually acceptable outcome. Given its size and economic clout, China must use this advantage as an opportunity to resolve the dispute in a way that is beneficial to both itself and the other countries in the region.
Military Power
In addition to diplomatic and economic strategies, military power should not be underestimated in the dispute over the South China Sea. As the region is a major source of income for the Chinese government, Beijing must ensure that its claims to the region are protected. This can be achieved by deploying a formidable military presence in the region, particularly in the Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal, where China contends that it has historic rights.
In line with this, the Chinese military has made efforts to modernize its equipment and strengthen its forces in the South China Sea. Beijing has already deployed several advanced fighter jets and warships to the region, as well as air and naval patrols. The Chinese government has also authorized the use of armed drones to patrol the region, which some experts have suggested is a sign that Beijing is willing to use force if necessary to defend its claims.
Regional Relations
Given the complexity of the dispute, it is important to consider how China’s actions in the South China Sea will affect regional relations. So far, several countries in the region have expressed deep concern over Beijing’s claims, particularly with regard to their access to the region’s resources. This could lead to even greater tensions in the region, as the countries involved compete over exclusive access to the seas and its resources.
At the same time, China must also be mindful of its relations with the major powers in the region. The US, for example, has voiced its opposition to China’s actions in the South China Sea, as well as its support for the other countries with claims to the sea. If China fails to take into account the concerns of the other countries and major powers in the region, it could risk damaging its already strained relations with the US and other stakeholders.
