The South China Sea is a fiercely contested area of global importance. It’s estimated to contain 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. China has long been at odds with several neighbours over the distribution of rights in this potentially resource-rich maritime area. Heightened tension and protests have been commonplace since China began building islands in the South China Sea.
In the past five years it has been estimated that China has built up 3,200 acres of islands. This has resulted in unprecedented difficulties among rival claimants and sparked fears about China’s growing maritime power. Building islands has allowed China to control access to the South China Sea and has raised fears of militarization in the region, further escalating tensions.
China claims historical and geographical ownership of the South China Sea, dating back as far as the Han Dynasty over 2000 years ago. Beijing has pointed to this claim as a justification for their building activities in the area. This historical narrative has been a source of contention among other regional players and the international community. Despite international condemnation, China has continued to move forward with their island-building ambitions.
The international community, led by the United States, has strongly opposed China’s activities in the South China Sea. The US has called on China to respect international law, to recognize the decision of an international tribunal, and to cease all land reclamation projects. American warships have also conducted ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the region, sailing within the territorial waters of disputed islands.
Many experts believe that China’s activities in the South China Sea are part of a coordinated effort to change the status quo in the region. China’s construction of artificial islands has enabled them to project their authority in the region and to bolster their claims. As Chinese president Xi Jinping declared “No one should expect China to swallow the bitter pill of damage to its core interests”.
Whether or not China is succeeding in its aims remains to be seen. However, what is without question is the fact that the South China Sea is increasingly turbulent, and will only become more so as the two sides in this struggle to control it refuse to back down.
International Reactions
The international community has reacted with alarm in the face of China’s activities in the South China Sea, particularly with regards to the illegal land reclamation projects. The United Nations and the European Union have both expressed deep concern over China’s disregard for international law and the potential systemic consequences of their attempts to redefine the status quo.
Numerous Southeast Asian countries have opposed China’s expansion in the South China Sea, with several filing their own counter-claims. Other neighbouring countries have likewise expressed their concern, in particular Japan and India, both of which have their own interests in the region.
Australia, once thought to have a staid foreign policy, has taken the lead role in pointing out what it views as China’s increasingly aggressive posture. Former Prime Minister for Australia, Tony Abbot, stated that “Australia should never engage in any course of action to try and contain or frustrate China. But nor should Australia shrink from defending our interests, from standing up with others in upholding international law, and from his upholding our strong view that the conflict should be resolved peacefully”.
Australia and other regional players have followed the American lead in challenging China’s expansion by conducting ‘freedom of navigation’ operations. These operations include sailing and flying within the disputed waters in a bid to prove that they do not respect China’s maritime claims.
In the face of China’s activities and the international reactons to them, one thing is certain: the South China Sea is increasingly becoming one of the most bitterly contested regions in the world.
Economic Implications
The economic outlook for the region is tense and uncertain. Although China claims to have only developed the islands for peaceful purposes, the reality is that the area is now militarized with the deployment of air defense systems and the construction of airfields. These activities have created a buffer zone to restrict the movement of foreign vessels and are likely to have long-term economic consequences.
International economic organizations have warned that China’s island-building activities could have an overall chilling effect on economic activities in the region. Not only could the militarization of the South China Sea hinder freedom of navigation, but China’s increasingly tight control of the area is likely to have a negative impact on trade, obviously detrimental to global economies.
Foreign companies operating in the region could face undue pressure from Beijing. China has already issued a series of warnings against foreign businesses that encroach upon its claimed territory. Companies have reported receiving veiled threats from Chinese government officials with the intention of driving them away from contested waters. This is likely to have a negative impact on businesses in the region and could further reduce investments in the area.
It is clear that China’s expansion could have wide-reaching economic implications, as the region is already feeling the effects of heightened tensions.
Environmental Impact
Adding to the stark political and economic picture is the dire environmental damage caused by China’s activities in the South China Sea. Many of the islands are composed of dredged sands, much of which is illegally sourced from surrounding waters. Furthermore, fishing stocks around the islands have been drastically reduced due to contamination caused by the massive construction projects.
The reefs that were once home to countless coral species are now dying off due to polluted waters, as have many of the fish species in the area. Not only have native seabirds, turtles, and other creatures disappeared, but the newly built islands have disrupted the local sea bed’s delicate ecology, endangering numerous endangered species.
China claims that it is restoring the coral beds and ecosystems in the area, but experts are sceptical of their claims and have called for independent surveys of the area. The truth is that the environmental damage is severe and could have long-lasting effects on the ecology of the South China Sea.
It is clear that China’s activities in the South China Sea are not only having a political and economic impact, but, like many such activities, an environmental one as well.
Geo-Strategic Implications
It is clear that Beijing is aiming to create a buffer zone to deny access to American and allied vessels. China’s strategy appears to be one of containment, which would result in a de facto oblique no-fly zone akin to the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.
A “no-fly” zone would effectively isolate the South China Sea from external maritime powers and embolden Chinese power in the region. This could have far-reaching consequences, not least of which is the fact that it would have a destabilizing effect on the entire region.
Aside from its containment policies, China also appears to be attempting to establish dominance over the South China Sea in a bid to ensure the security of their energy supply. China is increasingly reliant on energy imports to meet its ever-growing energy demands and has made it clear that maintaining the status quo in the region is one of their top priorities.
However, it is increasingly clear that China’s activities in the South China Sea will not go unchallenged. To the contrary, it has become apparent that the South China Sea is entering a new era of conflict and uncertainty.
Social Impacts
The social impacts of the ongoing conflict in the South China Sea are immense. In the immediate term, residents of the Spratly Islands, who rely on fishing and tourism, are suffering due to the disruption of their livelihoods. Fishing boats have been prevented from travelling to certain areas, while the illegal dredging being carried out by Chinese companies has damaged reefs.
Moreover, the developing militarization of the South China Sea is likely to have serious psychological implications for the fishermen and tourist operators in the area, who have to live with the presence of armed Chinese soldiers on the islands. This is likely to have a detrimental effect on the industry, as tourists and customers shy away from the area.
The long-term effects are even more worrying. The rising tensions are likely to have a negative social impact on the entire region, as China attempts to consolidate its control of the South China Sea. This increased militarization of the region is sure to have an impact on the economies of many neighbouring countries, especially those that rely on shipping and maritime resources.
The rising levels of anxiety in the South China Sea are being compounded by the lack of a diplomatic solution. The situation is becoming more and more volatile and it remains unclear when, or if, the conflict will be resolved.
