Background
The South China Sea is an instrumental part of the South East Asia region. It is a body of water situated between the Southeast Asian mainland and South China that is rich in biodiversity. It is also home to many maritime sea lanes, making it one of the region’s most sought-after commodities. Throughout the years, the South China Sea has seen considerable stress and conflict with increased belligerence from many countries.
Since 2016, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, China, Brunei and Taiwan have engaged in various activities over jurisdiction of the South China Sea. Exercises on the sea range from the contested inlaids to military drills and naval patrols. In addition to this, reports that China has placed anti-aircraft and anti-missile weapon systems on its artificial islands in the south sea have raised many concerns.
Geo-Political Context
At the root of the tensions over the South China Sea is a geopolitical context of mistrust between China and other countries in the South East Asia region. Many countries in the region have been wary of Chinese intentions for some time now, fueling a U.S.-led campaign to uphold freedom of navigation in the Sea.
In order to ward off potential Chinese aggression, the United States has sought to bolster its allies’ military capabilities. As well, U.S. aircraft carriers have made several trips to the sea in recent years to remind China of its presence there. Consequently, this has increased the likelihood of dangerous confrontations over the South China Sea.
Experts’ Perspectives
In recent years, experts have warned about the potential for an increase in armed conflict over the sea. According to Navin Ramankutty, a professor of international relations at the University of Manchester, “Each of the claimants has been trying to increase their presence in the sea, and this has raised the risk of conflict.”
On the other hand, some experts believe that the presence of the United States in the region is an important buffer between potential conflict. According to Ying Yu Lin, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, “The presence of the United States has ensured that conflict will be kept to a minimum, at least in the near term.”
Analysis
The South China Sea is a vital area for the trade interests of many countries in the region. It also has immense economic importance due to its rich mineral resources and fisheries. As a result, it is in the interest of all countries involved in the dispute to avoid military conflict and work towards finding a diplomatic solution.
For China, the issue is more complicated. It is keen to maintain its presence in the South China Sea, but must beware of stepping on the toes of other countries in the region. This complicates the diplomatic negotiations between it and other countries since there will be mutual distrust between the two parties.
Impact on the Environment
The increased militarization of the South China Sea has had a detrimental impact on the already fragile marine environment in the region. The presence of large numbers of militaries in the area and the use of heavy equipment for military activities have polluted the water and have had devastating effects on the fragile coral reefs in the area.
The impact of the militarization on the marine environment is particularly significant in the long term, as it can significantly reduce the diversity of marine life and even lead to the destruction of entire species. This is an issue that needs to be addressed urgently by all relevant governments and international organizations.
Effect on Regional Stability
The South China Sea has been a consistent source of instability in the region since 1949. Although there have been attempts by all countries involved in the dispute to maintain peace, there have also been numerous incidents of military activity and conflicts over territorial claims.
This has had a serious impact on the regional security environment, as the presence of so much military activity has made the sea a potential flashpoint for conflict. The lack of a binding agreement to maintain peace in the area has heightened the risk of a conflict between the countries involved and this has had a destabilizing effect on the region.
Risk of Proxy War
The danger of armed conflict between China and its neighbours over the South China Sea has resulted in an increase in bellicose rhetoric and posturing. The United States has also been active in the region, as it seeks to protect its regional interests and maintain regional stability.
The potential for conflict between U.S. and Chinese forces is ever-present, and this has led to concerns that a proxy war could break out in the area between the two sides. This could have serious repercussions for the region, as a conflict between them could draw in other countries in the region and escalate into a full-scale war.
Effect on International Trade
The South China Sea is a critical part of the global economy, and its militarization has had an impact on international trade. The increased presence of military vessels in the area has led to increased delay times for vessels travelling through the area, due to increased security checks and the imposition of curfews on shipping lanes.
This has resulted in higher transportation costs for companies and reduced their profits, due to the additional security costs imposed by the militarization of the sea. It has also affected regional livelihoods, particularly among fishing communities, as their access to the sea is now restricted due to the presence of military vessels.
Impact of Global Trends
The increased militarization of the South China Sea has not gone unnoticed by the global community. Global powers such as the United States and Japan have sent warships to the area to protect the freedom of navigation and to dissuade any country from attempting to interfere with global trade.
The effects of climate change have also contributed to the tensions in the region, as the sea’s resources become increasingly scarce. Rising sea levels have also exacerbated the problem, as China has sought to build up its presence in the region in order to gain access to its natural resources.
Leadership International Stalemate
The increased tensions in the South China Sea have been met with a policy of stalemate by the international community. The United Nations has been unable to intervene effectively due to the immense power of China, and the lack of a unified front from the other countries in the region.
At the same time, the international community is reluctant to act due to the potential for an escalation of the conflict. As a result, the international community has adopted a ‘wait-and-see’ approach in order to avoid any potential conflict. This has resulted in a prolonged stalemate, with no resolution in sight.
Regional Diplomatic Efforts
In an attempt to avoid an armed conflict, the countries in the region have engaged in diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute in the South China Sea. This includes the Malaysia-led ASEAN Code of Conduct, which calls for the voluntary prevention of activities that could potentially aggravate the situation.
In addition, China and the other claimants in the region have engaged in various dialogues and negotiations with the aim of finding a peaceful solution to the dispute. These efforts, however, have met with mixed results, as there is still no resolution to the dispute in sight.
Impact on Global Powers
The ongoing dispute in the South China Sea has had a significant impact on the global powers in the region. The United States, for instance, has sought to increase its foothold in the region in order to deter potential Chinese aggression.
At the same time, Japan has attempted to build up its presence in the area in order to better protect its interests. This has led to increased tensions between China and Japan, with each side attempting to compete for influence in the area. As a result, the presence of global powers in the South China Sea has only served to further complicate the dispute.
