Conflicts In South China Sea
The South China Sea is one of the world’s hotly contested regions as a result of a complex array of territorial and maritime disputes among multiple parties. Seven countries have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, namely Brunei, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. This has caused longstanding diplomatic disagreements and a new ‘Great Game’ is currently taking place in the region, which is heavily linked to economics, security and geopolitics.
The tension over the South China Sea stems from territorial claims over various rival islands, shoals and reefs. At stake is approximately 3.37 million square kilometers of the maritime space and its vast stores of natural resources, such as oil and natural gas deposits. An estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas are believed to be hidden below the seabed of the South China Sea.
From an economic standpoint, the South China Sea also has major significance for international trade, hosting some of the world’s most important shipping lanes. It is estimated that $5.3 trillion worth of goods are shipped through the area each year.
The origin of the current disputes date back to 1945, when Japan’s departure from the region ended its control of the South China Sea islands. As other countries began to lay claim over island assets, China and Taiwan both issued competing claims that triggered a tension in the waters with multiple countries.
Since then, China has been increasingly aggressive with its claims, beginning a campaign of land reclamations and military building. Multiple artificial islands have been constructed, constructed by China in the Spratly Islands and in the Paracel Islands. China has now deployed weapons systems, such as missiles and fighter jets, in the contested areas, raising alarm from other countries involved.
Furthermore, China has used military vessels to bully and block boats from the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and other neighboring countries from accessing their traditional fishing waters. Many of these countries have poor defences and have become increasingly worried by China’s activity and its aggressive stance on opposing territorial claims.
China has stated its claim over the South China Sea is based on historical and legal principles and that it has “irrefutable” sovereignty over the area. Its leaders, however, have also argued that they will not shy away from using military force to back up their claims. Despite the tension, China has engaged in dialogues with the other countries involved and has proposed to wait for a final solution to be found.
Impact On The Global Economy
The conflict in the South China Sea leaves serious implications for the global economy. It has led to concerns that international trade, economic growth and the stability of the region could all be compromised if there is a serious conflict between rival claimants.
The rising tension has already caused costs for companies who are having difficulty accessing key ports and areas. International shipping lanes have been of particular concern, especially given the strategic value of the straits of China, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines.
The conflicts have also led to high insurance premiums for vessels that seek to trade through these highly contested areas. According to a survey by Allianz, this increase can range from 5% to 20%. Furthermore, some countries have stated that they will defend their maritime interests with military force if necessary and this could potentially lead to an escalation of the tensions in the region.
There is also the real risk of physical damage to ships, infrastructure and the wider environment if there were to be a major military conflict or a major industrial accident in the South China Sea. This could severely impact the environment and lead to long-term damage.
It is also important to note that the conflict could be used by China as an effective tool of economic coercion and as a way of consolidating its power and territory in the area. This could potentially lead to economic sanctions, higher import costs, currency manipulation and even military blockade of key areas.
It is therefore essential for a peaceful solution to be found. Dialogue and multilateral negotiation between countries is a key part of approaching this solution and certain coalitions, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), have been formed to work towards this goal.
International Involvement
Various powerful international forces have become increasingly involved in the South China Sea dispute, notably the United States. The US has frequently expressed support for maintaining freedom of navigation in the area and has also encouraged regional countries to work together for a peaceful resolution. However, its involvement in the dispute has caused tension with China, as the US is seen as directly challenging its sovereignty and power over the area.
In response, China has stated that it is willing to engage in talks with the US but has also strongly opposed any involvement by an outside power in the dispute. Its leaders have argued that the US should act like a mediator to help with the negotiations rather than an adversary.
Meanwhile, various global organisations, such as the United Nations, have also expressed their desire to contribute to a peaceful resolution. This strategy has become increasingly important due to the fears of miscalculation that could lead to a military conflict in the area.
However, the UN’s involvement in the dispute has so far been limited due to its limited powers over maritime rights and navigation. Nevertheless, a settlement could be possible if all parties can come to an agreement over the various issues associated with the South China Sea and its rival territorial claims.
Impact On Regional Politics
The conflicts in the South China Sea have had an immense impact on regional politics and stability. The various countries of Southeast Asia have witnessed the rise of nationalism, as well as diplomatic disputes between themselves and China.
The South China Sea conflict has also caused tensions to rise outside the region, such as in India, as many of its interests have been affected by China’s increasing presence in the area. This has caused diplomatic standoffs between India and China over such areas as trade, defence deals and infrastructure development.
It is important to note that the countries of Southeast Asia have the most to lose in a potential conflict. Many of the neighbouring countries have weak militaries, meaning that any conflict with China could severely impact their economies and political stability.
The rise in tensions has presented an opportunity for other countries, such as the US, to take advantage of the situation. They could offer economic and military assistance to neighbouring countries, as well as engaging with China in negotiations. This could create an environment of mutual trust and understanding, ultimately helping to facilitate a resolution to the disputes.
Role Of International Courts
International courts have also become involved in the dispute. The International Court of Justice in The Hague, for instance, has issued multiple rulings in the South China Sea conflict and has also suggested ways in which disputes can be resolved. The court has encouraged countries to take an approach of dialogue and negotiation in order to reach an agreement and has warned against any potential conflicts.
This is highlighted by the ruling it issued in 2016, which emphasised that all parties should respect the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This convention outlines the rights of countries to access the continental shelf, exclusive economic zones and other maritime areas of their respective territories.
In addition, the UNCLOS also provides frameworks for countries to peacefully settle any disputes they may have without resorting to force. This has been seen as an important point of reference for all parties involved in the South China Sea dispute.
Even so, the UNCLOS alone cannot provide a comprehensive resolution to the conflict in the South China Sea. The various claimants must also back their respective claims in the courts and this could potentially lead to lengthy legal battles.
Conclusion
The conflict in the South China Sea has created an atmosphere of increased tension and military build-up. With the various claimants making their case for dominion over the disputed islands, shoals and reefs, it is essential for a peaceful solution to be found. International organisations and courts have been involved in facilitating dialogue and negotiation between the different countries, in order to reach a mutually-agreeable settlement.
