The South China Sea is one of the most contentious and complex boundary disputes in the world. Its expansive geographical area, the interests of multiple countries and organizations, and the immense resources contained within it, have all combined to make the South China Sea a hotly contested region.
At the heart of the issues surrounding the South China Sea are the conflicting territorial claims of six countries, consisting of Brunei, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Each of these countries are vying to capitalize on the copious resources found in the South China Sea, while at the same time they continue to butt up against each other’s interests. These clashes of interests, and desperate attempts to lay or re-affirm territorial claims, are what make the South China Sea so volatile.
An additional source of difficulty for many of the countries in the area, is the fact that there are currently no internationally-recognized borders in the South China Sea. This area has been subject to a variety of proposals from each of the countries that reside there, but with no consensus between them in sight, the issue is yet to be resolved. As a result, tensions between the various powers in the region continue to mount and the South China Sea is left in a state of perpetual conflict.
In June of 2016, a tribunal belonging to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled against China over its maritime claims in the South China Sea. However, China refused to acknowledge the ruling or abide by its decision. This unflinching refusal to budge only serves to deepen the divides that separate the countries involved and reinforces the need for compromise.
Experts predict that in the long-term, the South China Sea is likely to become increasingly dangerous as tensions continue to flare and accusations of “unlawful activity” become increasingly common. There are fears that military forces could be deployed in the region, which would ultimately lead to confrontation and the potential for all-out war.
Throughout this tumultuous period, the United States appears to have taken on a role as a mediator between the countries, pushing for a peaceful resolution to the dispute. While the US’s involvement has certainly been beneficial, there are concerns that it may be viewed as “meddling” and as a result, could be counterproductive.
Resources at Stake
The South China Sea is one of the world’s most important international waters. It holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, resources the six countries all are eager to capitalize on. Additionally, the South China Sea also plays an important role in global trade – with an estimated $5-7 trillion worth of goods passing through its waters each year.
The desire to access these vast resources has inspired the countries involved to become increasingly uncompromising in their claims, making the prospect of a quick, painless solution increasingly remote.
China’s Role
China’s influence in the region has grown immensely in recent years, and it is now the primary power when it comes to the South China Sea dispute.
China’s adamant stance on the matter is well-known. The country has long held that the dispute is a territorial one, not one to be solved through international law. This view puts it in direct opposition to the other states in the area and those, such as the US, that are trying to mediate.
In the face of unrelenting US pressure, China has come up with its own proposals to try and conclude the dispute. One such proposal is the so-called “dual-track diplomacy”, a concept that would allow each of the countries involved to resolve their disputes through bilateral negotiation while simultaneously engaging in discussions through a regional platform.
Unfortunately, this concept has been met with resistance from many of the neighboring countries involved in the dispute. Those countries are of the opinion that China is trying to dominate the process and push countries into submission.
Political Implications
The inconclusive nature of the South China Sea dispute has far-reaching implications for the region’s politics.
The uncertainty of the situation means that countries are operating in a state of constant anxiety, for fear that conflict could erupt at any moment. This ongoing state of unease has had a major impact on the region’s political landscape, with countries now playing a more cautious game than before.
It has also discouraged investment in the region, as investors are concerned by the inability of the six countries to come to a definitive agreement.
Most concerningly, the dispute has developed a degree of nationalism which is only further polarizing the countries involved and making compromise increasingly unlikely. This is a problem that must be addressed if progress is to be made in resolving the dispute.
International Involvement
With the countries involved in the dispute unable to reach a solution amongst themselves, it increasingly looks like the solution will come from the outside.
Various entities have intervened in the dispute, such as the United Nations and the European Union, but the most influential appears to be the United States. They have staunchly opposed China’s claims, pushing for a more gentle approach to be taken.
The US, alongside many countries in the region, support an adherence to the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, oft-cited as the basis by which most other international maritime laws are judged. It is believed that by adhering to this convention, a resolution to the South China Sea dispute will eventually be found.
Regional Repercussions
The stalemate in the South China Sea is certain to have profound implications for the entire region. Economically, much of the region is already suffering from the dispute, as countries involved divert resources to shore up their claims.
But the dispute has wider implications for the region too, with important environmental and political repercussions. The environmental issue is perhaps most pressing, as the dispute has caused a marked decline in the region’s oceanic health, with marine life in danger of being wiped out.
Additionally, the dispute has resulted in an increasingly provocative political climate, with each country involved seemingly growing more daring in its posturing. This of course is leading to an escalating arms race amongst the countries, a worrying situation that surely must be addressed before it gets out of control.
Legal Solutions
For many observers, the answer seems clear – a legal solution is the only way to move forward. While this may seem a simple answer, difficulties arise due to the complexity of the situation, with no country willing to give way.
The only potential way forward is for the countries involved to come to some form of agreement – even if that agreement needs to be renegotiated periodically. As the saying goes, the only solution to a zero-sum game is to create a larger pie.
A more specific solution could be the establishment of an international tribunal dedicated to the South China Sea dispute. Such a body would be able to establish a clear set of rules and boundaries for the region, ending the perpetual state of ambiguity.
At the same time, some of the underlying issues that are fueling the dispute, such as the economic concerns, must be addressed. As long as these questions remain unanswered, the dispute is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.
China’s Relationship with Other Countries
While the six countries involved in the dispute are the primary focus, China’s relationship with other countries in the region must be taken into account.
China has now begun to build strong diplomatic ties with many of its neighbors, including those in the South East Asia region. This has been a major boon for Chinese influence in the area and has allowed China to play a larger role in the carrying out of the dispute.
At the same time, these diplomatic ties have also caused tension with many of the countries that are not involved in the dispute, as they become increasingly worried by the encroaching Chinese presence.
Additionally, the US-China relationship has a major effect on the matter, with US pressure on China to abide by international law being a major factor in the conflict.
Conclusion of the Dispute
Ultimately, the conclusion of the South China Sea dispute is likely to take some time, as the six countries involved must come to some form of agreement in order to bring an end to the long-standing impasse.
The task of reaching such an agreement is a difficult one, as it requires compromise from each of the countries involved. It will therefore be paramount to address both the legal and political aspects of the dispute, as well as China’s relationship with other countries in the region.
It is clear that greater international involvement and pressure are needed for a conclusion to be reached, and that a far-reaching solution must go beyond the scope of what any one of the countries involved can offer.
Only then will the issue be resolved, and the South China Sea be able to operate on a more peaceful footing.
