The South China Sea is one of the most contested regions in the world and a hotbed for geopolitical tensions. The body of water, located between China, Vietnam, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries, is home to a sprawling archipelago of islands, reefs and continental shelves, and has some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. What happens in the South China Sea has far reaching implications and can affect the delicate balance of power between the countries involved.
Currently, several countries are making competing claims for control and economic rights over a string of islands and on the sea, with China claiming almost the entire sea as its sovereignty and many other countries including Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei contesting their claims. In June 2018, the International Court of Justice rejected Chinese claims in the South China Sea, but China has largely ignored the ruling.
Unsurprisingly, tensions in the South China Sea have been steadily rising in recent years. China has been particularly aggressive in pursuing its expansionist goals, undertaking an extensive reclamation and militarization program across the region. The government has built seven man-made islands in the South China Sea, all of which are equipped with airstrips, harbors, military installations and other civil infrastructure.
The situation was further complicated when then-Vice President Biden announced in 2010 that the US would begin challenging China’s claims, beginning with a “freedom of navigation” operation in the South China Sea, in which US naval vessels sailed through the waters unannounced. Since then, the US has conducted several such operations, leading to heightened tensions in the region.
The threats posed by increasingly militarized South China Sea are numerous. Experts warn that the presence of a large number of military vessels, weapons, and installations could spark skirmishes, armed conflicts, and even a major war. The sea, which is critical to global trade, could also be subject to the Chinese government’s “excessive and restrictive navigation practices,” which could put a stranglehold on international commerce in the region.
The possibility of a war in the South China Sea could have devastating consequences worldwide. Economically, it could be catastrophic for global trade and put many countries in a vulnerable position. It could also lead to irreparable damage to the environment through spills, oil leaks, and runoff of hazardous materials.
Future Combination of Regional and International Forces
Faced with such a dangerous environment, countries in the region are beginning to see the need for a unified approach to the South China Sea. At an ASEAN meeting in April 2018, for example, a number of countries declared their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the dispute. Meanwhile, Japan, India, and Australia, who are not directly involved in the conflict but could be affected by it, have increased their presence in the region.
The US, too, continues to take a keen interest in the South China Sea and is likely to remain a major player in the region. In May 2018, the US carried out a joint exercise in the South China Sea with the navies of Japan, Australia, and India, demonstrating its commitment to maintaining peace and stability. In June of the same year, the US conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the region, the first of its kind since President Biden’s announcement in 2010.
The US has been vocal in its condemnation of China’s claims to the South China Sea. Senior US officials have characterized the disputes in the South China Sea as “one of the most serious threats to international peace and security in the 21st century” and have urged China to respect the freedom of navigation and overflight rights of other countries in the region.
In the face of increasing tensions, it is clear that the future of the South China Sea will be determined by a combination of regional and international forces. However, the ultimate outcome is impossible to predict. What is certain is that while the disputes may seem far away, they have serious implications for countries around the world. As such, the international community must be prepared to take appropriate action should tensions escalate further.
Rising Tensions
Tensions in the South China Sea are becoming increasingly strained. It is evident that there is a growing precariousness about the security and stability of the region, as there is no previous experience in international disputes of this kind. Any misstep between China and its regional rivals, or by countries outside of the region, could potentially trigger a regional crisis.
The growing presence of naval vessels in the South China Sea is clear evidence of the rising tensions in the region. In the last year alone, the US, China, Japan and other countries have conducted numerous naval exercises, reflected in an increase in the number of maritime infrastructures such as harbors, coastal defense installations and airstrips. All of this indicates that each country is preparing for the potential of a military conflict.
Of increasing concern is the fact that smaller countries in the region are bearing the brunt of the impacts of the maritime tensions in the South China Sea. For them, escalating tensions threaten their economic livelihood and national security. These countries have the least resources and are most vulnerable to any potential conflict in the region.
These concerns are shared by the international community. In December 2017, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution calling for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in the South China Sea. This shows the urgency with which the international community views the security situation in the region.
The Responsibility For Resolving Tensions
Given the gravity of the situation in the South China Sea, it is essential that all of the countries involved take responsibility for resolving the tensions in the region. The US, China, and other regional countries must engage in sincere and productive negotiations, free from any form of coercion. There must also be a willingness to compromise and respect the sovereignty of other countries in the region.
In the meantime, countries in the region must work together to build a stable and peaceful environment in the South China Sea. This can be achieved through such steps as joint naval exercises and intelligence sharing, as well as establishing marine protected areas and other maritime zones of cooperation.
It is encouraging that both China and the US have in recent months engaged in dialogue regarding the South China Sea. While such talks have not yet produced any tangible results, they could be the first step in finding a peaceful and lasting solution to the disputes. Only through direct dialogue and constructive cooperation can the dangers of militarization and conflict in the South China Sea be avoided.
The Urgency for a Resolution
It is essential that all parties involved in the disputes in the South China Sea be aware of the pressing need for a resolution. This is not merely a territorial dispute between a few countries, but a situation that has the potential to affect the international balance of power and deeply disrupt the global economy. The longer it takes to find a resolution, the greater the risk that it will explode into a full-blown naval conflict.
The South China Sea is home to some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes and is a critical artery of international trade. Over 60,000 ships ply the waters of the South China Sea each year, transporting around $3 trillion worth of goods annually. Any disruption to the freedom of navigation in the area would have devastating consequences for the global economy.
The stakes could not be higher in the South China Sea. Every effort must be made to find a peaceful resolution to the disputes. All parties involved must be flexible and cooperative in order to reach a satisfactory agreement that is acceptable to all sides. Only then can the region remain peaceful, secure and stable.
Implications For International Relations
The implications of the South China Sea dispute are far-reaching and have implications for international relations in the 21st century. It is a classic example of a “balance of power” situation in which numerous countries, including smaller nations and emerging economies, are all vying for their place in the global order.
These countries are all striving to build their own economic and military strength in order to protect their interests, but in doing so they risk antagonizing their neighbours. This is especially true of China, whose expansionist ambitions, although understandable given its size and economic strength, run the risk of being perceived negatively by the other regional nations.
The US, too, must tread carefully in how it approaches the situation. It is clear that the US has the necessary diplomatic, economic and military power to de-escalate the situation and foster greater cooperation between the countries involved. However, the US must be cognizant of the fact that any unilateral interventions or imposing of its will on the region could be perceived as threatening and further inflame tensions.
The South China Sea conflict is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, but the implications of the dispute will have a lasting impact on international relations. It is therefore essential that all countries involved in the dispute, as well as the international community as a whole, take a collaborative approach to resolving the crisis. Only by working together can the danger of militarization and conflict be avoided.
