China’s build-up in the South China Sea (SCS) has been well-documented since the first signs of militarisation happened in the region in 2014. However, the question of ‘when did China start building in the South China Sea?’ is more complex. In order to fully answer this question, an examination of China’s activities in the area dating back to the early 2000s must be analysed.
The total land area of China’s reclaimed islands in the SCS has been estimated to be over 2000 hectares, but some experts suggest that the figure is much higher. Since 2014, China has managed to convert previously submerged outcrops into newly established islands with military and naval ports, airfields, and other infrastructure that has allowed China to establish a secure presence in the region.
Until around 2013, China’s SCS activities centred around mostly small scale land reclamation and the construction of rudimentary facilities designed mainly to assert administrative control and monitor the waters. However, it was in 2014 that the scope and scale of the activities began to increase significantly, with a significant increase in sand dredging and expansion of the built-up areas on the reclaimed islands.
The pace of these activities accelerated around the time of the arbitration case initiated by the Philippines in 2013. The increase in militarization raised concerns from countries in the region and beyond, as the new facilities enabled China to gain a strategic advantage in both the South China Sea and the Western Pacific.
The increasingly assertive activity by China in the SCS has been a potential source of tension between China and its neighbours, not least over the potential for disputes in the region. In response, the United States and its allies have conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s claims and activities.
The international response has been largely unified, with the 2015 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) outlining measures to ensure freedom of navigation and overflight in the region. The DoC has been widely seen as a step forward, though the challenges posed by Beijing to freedom of navigation in the SCS remain significant.
China has so far refused to participate in negotiations based on the 2016 ruling by the UNCLOS tribunal, which rejected China’s claims of ‘historic rights’ in much of the South China Sea. Instead, Beijing has sought to resolve the disputes through bilateral negotiations and to ensure that the competing claims remain unsettled and ambiguous.
The trend of Chinese activity in the SCS could be seen as ‘salami-slicing’, with the slow and steady increment of Chinese activity in the region. China’s stated position that it will pursue activities in the South China Sea in accordance with international law gives it some degree of leverage when dealing with competing claims.
Important Influence of South China Sea to China
The South China Sea is one of the most strategically important regions of the world, with an estimated 11 billion barrels of undiscovered oil and nearly 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This has made it particularly attractive to many countries in the region, including China. In recent years, the South China Sea has become increasingly important to Beijing as its economic and political clout grows, with strategic and economic interests in the region converging.
China’s actions in the South China Sea are centrally connected to its long-term goals and ambitions. As a rapidly expanding global economic power, access to ocean resources, markets, and shipping routes is of paramount importance to Beijing.
The South China Sea is part of the nine-dash line claimed by China, which includes most of the waters of the South China Sea. This claim is seen by many as illegitimate, and has been contested by other claimants in the region including Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. China has used a variety of techniques to promote its own interests in the South China Sea, including land reclamation, construction of artificial islands, increased military presence, and aggressive deterrent rhetoric.
Economically, the South China Sea is hugely important for both China and its regional neighbours, with fishing and energy resources estimated to be worth billions of dollars. Furthermore, it is a strategic waterway; militarily, politically, economically, and also culturally. Its waterways could potentially give China access to the Pacific Ocean and a strong naval presence in the Pacific. This maritime trade route carries an estimated 75% of global goods worth an incredible $20 trillion.
China Expanding its Influence in South China Sea
China’s aggressive activities in the South China Sea have been seen as a challenge to the lawful and legitimate maritime activities by neighbouring countries. The expansion of China’s presence in the South China Sea has made it easier for their military, legal and economic interests to become intertwined in the disputes. Beijing has used a variety of tactics to expand its influence in the region, including construction and militarization of artificial islands.
China’s growing presence in the South China Sea has been accompanied by increased military capabilities, including surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft guns. This has raised tensions in the region, particularly with countries such as the United States that are concerned with the prospect of a future Chinese monopoly of the maritime region. The militarization of the South China Sea is seen by many as a violation of international law and a threat to the international order.
In recent years, there have been numerous reports of Chinese military vessels and aircraft intruding into the exclusive economic zones of other states. This has raised fears in some neighbouring countries that their rights and freedoms in the South China Sea could be infringed. In response, China has closely guarded its activities in the region, refusing to respond in detail to allegations of illegal activities.
Beijing argues that it is merely protecting its sovereignty and that its activities are purely for civilian and non-military purposes. Nonetheless, in the eyes of many observers, China’s actions in the South China Sea are an attempt to extend its power and control in the region.
International Diplomacy Impacts on South China Sea Disputes
The South China Sea has been at the centre of a number of bilateral and multilateral negotiations in recent years, with a range of proposals put forward by some of the claimants. However, to date, no agreement has been made. As the disputes in the South China Sea remain unresolved, the simmering tensions between the various parties have prompted some to call for a collective, regional solution.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is at the forefront of these efforts, having conducted a number of meetings with China on the issue, although there has been little progress towards an agreement. It is likely that despite ASEAN’s efforts, the ultimate resolution of the disputes will remain largely in the hands of the claimant states, with Chinese statecraft playing an important role in the process.
The United Nations has also become increasingly involved in the disputes, from the UNCLOS ruling to the adoption of a resolution by the UN Security Council on the issue. Some countries have also sought to leverage their respective relationships with China in order to further their own interests, or to counterbalance China’s growing influence. As a result, international diplomacy continues to play a key role in the management of the South China Sea disputes.
US and China Policy Impacts
The United States has adopted a two-pronged approach to the South China Sea, engaging in ‘maximum pressure’ diplomatic measures while also deploying military assets to the region. The US has imposed a range of sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals associated with activities in the region, and has conducted naval exercises in international waters near disputed areas in order to challenge China’s expansionist activities.
In response, China has implemented a policy of deterrence, making it clear that any foray by the United States into Chinese-claimed territory would be met with a swift response. China has also sought to strengthen its military presence in the region, increasing its number of vessels and deploying radar and missile batteries on many of the disputed islands. This has prompted concerns from countries in the region and beyond as to China’s intentions.
The South China Sea has become a point of contention between the US and China, with Beijing increasingly willing to challenge US hegemony in the region. China has sought to portray the US presence in the region as the destabilizing factor and is likely to continue this narrative in the face of US military and diplomatic pressure. With no long-term solution in sight, it is likely that tensions will remain high in the South China Sea in the coming years.
Repercussions of South China Sea Disputes
The South China Sea disputes have far-reaching implications for the economic and political stability of the region. The tensions have the potential to undercut free trade agreements, destabilize fragile states, and increase the risk of conflict. They have also caused great concern in the international community, with many concerned about the implications of any potential conflict and the potential security risks posed by China’s growing military presence in the region.
The disputes in the South China Sea have led to a deterioration of relations between some of the countries involved and have resulted in a decrease in trust between the parties. This has led to an increase in mistrust between the parties and has made it more difficult for them to cooperate with each other. Additionally, the tensions have resulted in a decrease in regional economic activity, as some countries have begun to reroute their ships away from the contested areas in order to avoid the possibility of conflict.
The South China Sea disputes are likely to continue to create significant geo-political tensions in the near future. It is critical that the international community come together and find ways to peacefully resolve the disputes, as continued tensions could have far-reaching implications for the stability of the region and the world more broadly.
