Background Information
The South China Sea – is a disputed part of the Western Pacific Ocean that is claimed by multiple countries, including Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. It contains abundant fish and other natural resources, and is a vital commercial waterway, being responsible for around one third of global shipping. For all these reasons, the South China Sea has become a high-stakes geopolitical area.
China’s disputes over this body of water span nearly 70 years, dating back to 1949 when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was established. In that year the PRC published its first official map of China which included the nine-dash line, a set of dashes outlining an area that encompasses the South China Sea. This has been used to justify Chinese claims ever since. China classifies these waters as “indisputable”, despite protestations from other countries in the region.
Relevant Data
In the decades that followed, the PRC used both military force and diplomatic negotiations to assert control over the South China Sea. In the 2011 Sutherland Report regarding the South China Sea dispute, it was estimated that China had built up an area of around 52 square miles, though the total area claimed by Beijing is much larger when taking into account the nine-dash line. This includes around 90% of the South China Sea’s waters and 12% of the water area of the global sea.
Further to this, it has also been estimated that the region holds natural gas equivalent to about 20% of the United States’ total gas reserves, with both China and other nations vying for control of the fossil fuel present in the South China Sea. The same report suggested that the region could hold as much as 11 billion barrels of oil.
Experts Perspectives
Aside from resource-related considerations, experts say that the South China Sea dispute is primarily about sovereignty, prestige, and naval domination of a strategically important region. According to Denny Roy, a senior fellow at Hawaii’s East West Center: “The South China Sea is a gateway to a larger world — it connects China to the Indian Ocean and beyond, encouraging expansion into the agricultural, scientific and technological societies of prosperous Europe, the Middle East and even North America.”
China’s claims are based on its nine-dash line, which is a cartographic line that was first published by the government of the Republic of China in 1947, and later by the Chinese Communist Party in 1949. This claim line was used to reject the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 1992, of which China is the only major power that has not become a signatory. International maritime law experts agree that this line has no basis under international law, as it violates numerous provisions of UNCLOS.
Own Insights and Analysis
It is clear that China will continue to pursue its ambitions in the South China Sea, and could use the equally contentious issue of Taiwan as a way to influence the region. The apparent revival of the nine-dash line proves that the Chinese government is determined to expand its influence. This has sparked tensions with all other countries in the region, who are unsurprisingly wary of China’s growing assertiveness.
The other claimant countries to the South China Sea are also just as determined to protect their interests, particularly as the waters are a major source of fish and other resources. Historically, this dispute has been a source of significant tension. In the past, hostility has even been displayed through military flights and vessels patrolling the area; and the presence of gas and oilfields in the region is likely to further complicate matters, as the different countries fight over their slices of the ocean’s untapped wealth.
Economic Impact
The various disputes in the South China Sea have a direct impact on the economies of each claimant’s respective country. Over the past decade, China has been on a spree of island building to increase its control over the region, but this has also been accompanied by an economic effort. The economic incentives which draw each country to the South China Sea are vast. In 2016, it was estimated that the area holds about 11 billion barrels of oil and 5.4 trillion cubic metres of natural gas, both of which are valuable resources.
The potential for oil, natural gas and other resources has made the South China Sea a race for power between each of the claimant countries. China has invested heavily in the area megaprojects in order to assert itself as the main power in the region. For other claimant nations, the South China Sea also represents a potential for increased trade, yet this increased trade and access to resources has too been heavily impeded by the numerous disputes.
Strategic Positioning
The South China Sea dispute has a direct effect on China-United States relations, as well as those between other regional and extra-regional countries. It is clear that the United States is eager to ensure that China’s presence in the South China Sea is kept in check, as well as promoting regional stability, economic growth and freedom of navigation in the area. For instance, the United States has conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the region as a way to indicate that the US does not recognize China’s claims.
China has responded to US intervention by escalating its rhetoric, as well as by attempting to reinforce its own position with increased military patrols of the region. This type of activity has sparked concerns of an intensification of the security dilemma in the South China Sea. The claimants are seemingly digging their heels in, and it appears as though the disputes will continue for many years to come.
Geopolitical Stakes
It is worth considering the broader geopolitical implications of the South China Sea dispute. All around the world, the contest for resources and power are ever-increasing. The various claims to the South China Sea have inevitably become a source of international attention, as the presence of China has heightened the stakes. As China seeks to expand its economic might and naval power throughout the region, it appears as though other nations are becoming increasingly wary.
As tensions in the area continue to rise, international relations in the region appear to be coarsening. The US has already deployed additional forces to deter China’s interests, and other countries such as Australia and Japan are likely to follow the same trajectory in order to guarantee the preservation of their own national interests. In the coming decades, the various disputes concerning the South China Sea will affect the balance of geopolitical power in the region.
Security Concerns
The security implications of the South China Sea disputes are also worth mentioning. In recent years, the various claimants have scrambled to deploy assets to back up their claims. China has been especially active, as well as undertaking island reclamation in order to enforce their nine-dash line. The militarization of the area has alarmed other nations, as well as leading to an intensification of the already existing security dilemma in the area.
As the various claimant countries continue to build up their military presences in the South China Sea, it stands to reason that this will only intensify tensions further as each nation seeks to protect their own interests. The current level of militarization in the region is something which all countries will have to take into consideration, as the stakes continue to increase over the coming years.
Environmental Implications
Finally, we must consider the environmental implications of the South China Sea dispute. Despite having a wealth of natural resources, the region is unfortunately heavily polluted, due to a lack of environmental regulations and legal enforcement. With the various claimants now ramping up their military and economic presences, this pollution is only likely to get worse as more vessels clog up the waterways and oil production ramps up.
A number of countries are now taking initiatives to try to mitigate the environmental damage being done to the region, but it is clear these alone will not be enough to ensure the preservation of the fragile marine ecosystems. As these disputes rage on, a concerted effort must be made in order to ensure that the environment is taken into consideration.
